Linux: Quo Vadis?

There’s an interesting article on linux.com about where Linux is going.  Here are the last few paragraphs:

Red Hat and Novell should both continue to thrive, with each appealing to a slightly different customer base: Novell will benefit from its deal with Microsoft among firms who fear a legal assault from Microsoft, while Red Hat will win with firms that choose vendors based on technological merits and those seeking freedom from monopolistic vendors. The irony is that both offer a better solution at a lower cost than Microsoft.

Ubuntu is going to have to get serious about its commercial operation one of these days. Even someone as rich as founder Mark Shuttlesworth cannot continue to fund its development forever without a revenue stream — perhaps through deals with OEMs such as Dell, perhaps by following the Red Hat lead and selling subscriptions for support to casual and corporate users. However that plays out, it can’t help but impact the Red Hat and Novell side of the equation If Ubuntu succeeds commercially, it will be as a major player, eating a large slice of the available market pie. If Ubuntu fails commercially, its will create a vacuum that Red Hat and Novell might fill.

Microsoft might become an even larger influence on Linux than it is today. What if, for example, Microsoft decided to plop a new GUI atop the Linux kernel and enter the fray with its own version of Linux? The company has never been shy about copying success demonstrated elsewhere, and Apple has done very well doing exactly that with BSD.

Such a move could solve a couple of problems for Microsoft. It has never really been very good at developing operating systems, and a move like that could not only free it from that chore, but provide a new basis for maintaining monopoly control over Microsoft Office: the GUI itself. Imagine the corporate appeal of a robust and secure Linux distribution coupled with 100% Microsoft Office and back office compatibility.

It’s a given that Microsoft will continue to use the same tactics it has used all along — disinformation, saber-rattling, and duplicitous advertising — despite the fact that those tactics are not working, as witness the failed SCO attack. My bet is that Microsoft will opt to get into the Linux business while the company still matters, and that it will be no more trustworthy once it does than it is today.

Linux and free software are here to stay. No single commercial firm will ever control the Linux ecosystem like Microsoft has the rest of the software industry. Though both may prosper, the bazaar will outlive the boardrooms, and Linux popularity will continue to grow on servers, desktops, appliances, and embedded devices.

Read it all here.